The Recommendations of the Millennial Debt Commission
The growth of the national debt has been fueled primarily by rising government spending, but righting the ship necessitates a more complex set of solutions: cutting spending, growing the American economy, and yes, increasing revenue. Over the past 50 years, federal revenues have averaged 17.3% of GDP. In 2021, federal revenues amounted to $4.0 trillion or 18.1% of GDP, significantly higher than historical averages. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a gradual growth in revenues to 19.1% of GDP by 2052. The plan presented here would further increase revenues to 19.9% of GDP by 2052.
Over the past 50 years federal spending has averaged 20.8% of GDP. In 2021, federal spending surged to $6.8 trillion driven by a series of spending packages to address the COVID pandemic and stimulate the economy. With COVID spending gradually coming to an end, CBO projects spending will fall from 30.5% of GDP in 2021 to 22.2% of GDP in FY 2024 and then begin a steady, and growing, increase relative to the economy, driven by growth in entitlement and net interest spending. By 2052, CBO projects federal spending will equal 30.2% of GDP.
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